Monday, June 20, 2016

How The Italian “Justice Tortoise” Is The Likely Winner Compared To For Example the US System

Posted by Peter Quennell

American prosecutor & jury - puzzle now over what system will make them share all evidence

Look around you.

The things you do to make a living. The running of your house and your garden. The education and general development of your children. The restaurants and metro railways and bus services. The police and military and football teams - and grand opera!

All are purposeful systems.

Purposeful systems have created all we have ever built on this planet - all wealth, all structures, all machines, all culture.  Typically any educated adult has within them at least 200 significant systems AKA their skill-set: cooking a meal, riding a bicycle, driving a car, using a computer, playing basketball.

You probably dont have a manual for each of them but each time you exercise a skill you probably follow the same hard-learned steps each time you want the benefit obtained previously.

One of the world’s great problems now - starkly seen in the British argument over its future in Europe, and in slow growth in the Arab world (the world’s slowest), and in China’s economy slowing and in anyone without a college degree likely to be worse off going forward - is that we are locked into whole huge arrays of these systems at various levels (family, corporate, city, country, region) that are archaic and mostly quite wrong for our needs going forward.

And few are sure which of all of them add any real value. We are flying blind on a mammoth scale.

With regard to the US as the main economic locomotive, in the 90s two very significant things happened. The East Asia economies really rocketed - because they adopted good systems pioneered by Japan, which itself had started out with many invented in America.

And for a while at least, many Americans really began to “see” systems, and corporations started a huge push toward quality control. You can see one outcome in today’s automobile ads - cars largely sell on their reliability. Their drive systems and safety systems are what sells cars now.

Latest thinking which we often touch on here is that tweaking of any systems anywhere has a short half-life, and after that the only way to get any better is to totally replace them.  Go down the road and start over. Jump to the next level through complete reinvention.

After WWII Germany and Japan and Italy of necessity all did that and for most of the time since they really benefited.

But right now, most systems in most countries are archaic and nobody - at least no political leader or candidate - seems to be able to arrive at the vision and technique vital to jumping to the next level. That in fact should really be done mostly bottom-up, with national politicians playing quite a minor role.

“Path dependencies” like the myriad systems of the common market, many very old now, are today at least as deadly to our long-term future as any aliens from other planets.

Italy is working to try to update its justice system right now and we will report on that shortly. At least in theory, it has one of the easiest tasks in the world, because post WWII its legal system was redesigned from the ground up. It had already junked bad aspects, some going back centuries.

Italy already has some of the world’s smartest juries - jury service is compulsory, so smart people cannot dodge them. And the system already has some other very positive things going for it.

Mainly what is needed is some weeding. And such reforms are made easier in Italy because (1) judges and prosecutors all follow career paths and so they are not politically competing with one another;  and (2) there is the Council of Magistrates (CSM) which can be very progressive in the reforms it pushes at its level.

Overarching reform in the United States is way way more difficult because power is so diffused in the political system and the political system is so vast, and so split by ideologies, and there is no CSM.

Here is an editorial in the New York Times about curbing the massive damage being done by over-zealous prosecutors - something already taken care of in the Italian system, despite the busload of idiots claiming otherwise.

And here is a blog post calling the New York Times editorial a convoluted crackpot of a column and saying the Times should get real. At least in that way, reform aint ever going to happen.

Hop on a plane, guys. Go to Italy, and learn something.


The EC’s core countries really should have known up-front or at least gradually realised that the price of a single currency is (1) have a massive program of system upgrade with lower-performing areas jumping to higher levels and meanwhile (2) transfer of billions to help those areas make their jump.

But as I mentioned in Comments a few times before the EC (unlike the UN) does not have any framework for countries to get together to improve the many systems they all need. New EC entrants (of which there are many with others waiting their turn) get no help at all on these lines, so widely differing economic performances persist.

The same with the US and Mexico via NAFTA by the way - if the US had shared knowhow (which admittedly Washington barely knows exists) for a serious jump in the Mexican economy, Donald Trump would have no reason to build his wall, and Americans would be moving to Mexico for jobs.

So in lieu of this the UK could vote for Brexit tomorrow. Italy could possibly be next if the UK (or parts of it) leave the EC. (Scotland, Wales and even London could choose not to go - the geographical areas in the UK in favor of Brexit have been losing economically - in the same way as many non-coastal states here. London has been doing really well.)

The Italian party favoring a Brexit type vote is the popular 5-Star; one idea the leader floated that could work is a lower tier Euro currency for the hard-hit areas across the south. 5-Star favors legal reform and could be the friends of the good guys in our case. Northern Italy is good at what is mentioned in the post, the rest not at all.

In all regions except the fast growing ones in Asia foolish bankers and economists still dominate. Almost without exception they are very bad news. As is so obvious now their policy tools simply do not work.  And even within the US though the new tools were all invented here (right here, in part, in New York) not so much common system building goes on.

Successful corporations try hard not to reveal what they have done, and often create scorched earth all around to ward off the pesky new little guys. As a direct result hundreds of billions of tax revenue from the “rich states” are transferred annually to those interior states that dont grow value much or at all.


Posted by Peter Quennell on 06/22/16 at 09:49 AM | #

Seems it is not only Italy that has been getting a bum rap in the British press.

Posted by Peter Quennell on 06/22/16 at 11:55 AM | #

Quirky psychology is a big-deal subject on Broadway. Audiences cannot get enough of it.

The last two plays I saw were Long Days Journey Into Night, about a matriarch whose mind really goes under prescription-drug influence, and The Father, about a patriarch moving in and out of dementia.

Tonight it’s this play based on truth, which includes something about Einstein’s brain which really was preserved in a bottle.

So far I know this much about it - that hospital is the basis for the fictional hospital in the House MD series which I guess figures.

Posted by Peter Quennell on 06/23/16 at 03:53 PM | #

I like the idea that a system can be tweaked only for so long, then it must give way to a completely new model. Real innovation. Or we’d all still be using steam engines, contantly improved steam engines but steam engines. New concepts that break the mold, think outside the box, well I guess that usually comes from the small percentage of genius thinkers on this earth. May their tribe increase.

Meanwhile as headlines dizzy us today with the fate of the U.K. and the EU: as a lifelong Anglophile I wait with bated breath for poll results of the Brexit vote today. I would vote to leave, but may whatever happens yield some good fruit somehow to the great British public and other nations affected by their historic decision.

Posted by Hopeful on 06/23/16 at 07:16 PM | #

So far, Brexit is winning.
As an irreversible Brit, I hope Brexit wins.

Posted by Cardiol MD on 06/23/16 at 09:59 PM | #

Hi Hopeful and Cardiol

Right. The EC should have learned - and the UK should learn now - from the Asian success of the 90s, on the lines mentioned above, with bankers and economists nowhere in sight.

Instead the EC doubled down on the harsh Washington Consensus policy model the World Bank and IMF had adopted (and was just backing off) which had run developing country after developing country right into the ground.

The northern leaders and bankers and economists of the EC still apply the Washington Consensus model to Greece, Italy, Portugal and Spain. Its like applying leeches in the age of modern medicine, it makes no sense at all.

Conceived properly the EC should not have adopted the common currency before massive capability for system enhancement to grow value was known about and underway in every community in all of the countries. That is a game everyone can and should play and the fundamentals can be taught in a few days in schools.

It is very calming and empowering as it builds everyone into the process. Way forward for the UK and other EC breakaways now? Much of the US (the Trump and Sanders voters) could use it too.

Posted by Peter Quennell on 06/24/16 at 06:34 AM | #

Hi Peter, it ‘s a well- deserved Black-Eye for the ‘Washington Consensus’.
PS Leeches are still very good for black-eyes

Posted by Cardiol MD on 06/24/16 at 09:50 AM | #

Today has been a great day for me.

I woke up in the hospital where I have been for the past 3 weeks (I have been fighting mouth cancer) and we did it! we where victorious in our vote to leave the EU.

Just one of the reasons I wanted to leave was that when we joined (I was 15 at the time) we as a people where lied to. They called it the common market then and it would facilitate easier trading and would be good for all members all round.

NOTHING about a single currency.
NOTHING about losing ones sovereignty.
NOTHING about a single military.
NOTHING about the farcical open borders fiasco.
NOTHING about a European superstate or The United States of Europe.
NOTHING about being ruled by unelected faceless and nameless eurocrats.
I could go on.

However, my team of experts today said I could go home! they had beaten the big C that was killing me.
All I need now is for England to win the Euro Championship in which something now inside of me is telling me we can do.

Oh the irony!

Posted by Deathfish on 06/24/16 at 10:07 AM | #

Yeah, well, England has to beat mighty Iceland first!

Yes customs unions generally work well. The EC headed out to emulate the US federal system but they left so many key bits out.

I had much to do with “them” in Brussels and although there are good people there (including Bits - and they all have faces!) they were simply the wrong people for the job.

The US is far from efficient wall to wall, in helping everybody everywhere to move up (hence Sanders & Trump) but its not nothing either.

Some things I would change like yesterday in the US which might be helpful to you too:

1) Planning bottom up from all communities everywhere with a 6-year or7-year vision, longer than the political cycle. That would really make everybody friends.

2) Divide the Federal budget into capital and recurrent budgets, so people can see capital investment is going on.

3) Those many states which receive huge net revenue inflows should be required to put systems enhancement to work; no free lunch.

4) Map out what in the economy is shedding value, which will be about 3/4 of the whole (really) and stop throwing tax revenues at the bits which need to be gone.

5) Wisen up education on these lines in all schools.

Posted by Peter Quennell on 06/24/16 at 11:23 AM | #

Hopeful wrote this about “mature” systems needing to be junked in a comment up above.

I like the idea that a system can be tweaked only for so long, then it must give way to a completely new model. Real innovation. Or we’d all still be using steam engines, contantly improved steam engines but steam engines. New concepts that break the mold, think outside the box, well I guess that usually comes from the small percentage of genius thinkers on this earth. May their tribe increase.

The reasoning behind this is in this amazing and influential book here:

Could this be what is needed for the EC? I never though of it happening at that level, but to try to change some or all of the EC systems now will not lead to faster growth, and it will be grinding work without end.

Maybe a central conference (sponsored by the UN or the UK?) between all countries, to explore how to jump the entire region to the next level, and then simply abandon the present EC, could be the best way forward.

Posted by Peter Quennell on 06/24/16 at 12:22 PM | #

@Deathfish, it’s good to hear you’re out of hospital and have Brexit to celebrate as well. I’m elated too for the new UK. As someone smart said in a comment about Brexit, may Great Britain become an Anglo-Saxon tiger, a western Europe Singapore. Here’s to the paradigm shift that Peter Quennell understands, and cheers, raise a glass. It’s all good.

Posted by Hopeful on 06/24/16 at 07:15 PM | #

Areas of what we talk about above are presently the most high-priced consulting in the world - starting at $4,000 a day on up through $10,000 and more. I only happen to know what they are because we had wide access and took note of them in the UN.

Plus we developed a framework making it possible to track and adjust systems from corporate up through national to the global. No company or government has such a thing going for them (yet). Absent management via this framework I dont see a way for fast growth to happen anywhere any more, because:

(1) Systems at one level are now often fighting systems at another level (in Europe’s case regional and national) and good systems emergence is being stifled at lower levels (looking at you EC!).

(2) If value creation is measured at any level only about 1/4 of all enterprise at that level is actually creating value, often a huge amount, while the other 3/4 just sits there or is a net negative. That 3/4 needs to stop getting huge subventions from our tax revenues and ASAP junked.

So I think I’ll set the whole thing out on another website in the next few weeks, and anyone who cares to grasp it will be welcome to use it for free. It’s time this “commoditizing” happened, and networked Italy, UK, etc, might see their way to really benefit.

This will save a ton of emails, which have been eating up scarce time of late and making me the bottle neck here. :-(

Posted by Peter Quennell on 06/25/16 at 06:59 AM | #

Yesterday was one of the darkest days in the history of the UK. Xenophobia, racism and stupidity have prevailed over common sense. An older and more narrow-minded generation have deprived a younger and more broadminded generation of a safer and more prosperous future. Predictably the value of the pound plunged, shares plummeted and the markets crashed.

Posted by The Machine on 06/25/16 at 12:08 PM | #

Yes perhaps in the short term. But the pendulum like water, will always find it’s own level. This is why eventually the younger generation will prevail over the older one. Just as in the US, Trumps supporters are, for the most part, old white (Or at least middle aged) who, unlike the UK are in the minority. This happy state is why Trump will lose in spectacular fashion.

Speaking of the pendulum. I am reminded that Amanda Knox does not have long, because there is always a balance in the affairs of men. A balance of justice, and if we lose sight of that fact then it does not matter, because people like me will always remind others to be after Knox in order to ensure her eventual downfall.

Posted by Grahame Rhodes on 06/25/16 at 04:28 PM | #

@the machine,  the voters made their views known and that’s all there is to it.  I would recommend you speak to your elderly relatives, your parents and grandparents, and have it out with them all the mistakes you accuse them of making!

It is absolutely pathetic to believe that prior to being ruled by the Brussels money pit we were a failing country!  Roger Daltry summed it up ; when he’s asked what the UK was like before we were in the EU he refers to ‘the sixties’, a time when we dominated in many industries! 

As an illustration of but one EU interference do some research on the families who once made their livings fishing the British seas for generations!  Thanks to the EU opening our waters to all and sundry they have been horrifically overfished to the point that our fish stocks are all but gone and cod are nearly extinct!  Our fishermen were no longer able to make a living and their jobs disappeared!  I could go on and on!

It’s a real shame that most of the Remain voters have no knowledge whatsoever of the damage the EU has done and their views are based on ignorance and lies.

Posted by MHILL4 on 06/25/16 at 05:56 PM | #

I wonder if the binary choice (in or out?) is proving to have been too simplistic as it did not allow for any subtlety, any third way.

It had two campaigns slugging it out, rather than for example a neutral government information campaign.

It could have been conferenced for 1-2 years. Topic #1 could have been for everyone (especially everybody outside London) how to network to be a part of even and fast growth via empowerment and the latest tools. 

The League of Nations, UN and EC were all founded on the basis of Functionalism, myriad different HORIZONTAL ties between peoples so that leaders would not perpetuate wars.

But the EC as it evolved beyond a common market concentrated everything at the top, and put functionalism in reverse: split many people apart, discouraged networks, and caused disempowerment in spades.

How the Machine sees it is perhaps the dominant reporting mode in the US. There doesnt seem to be a mode yet for anyone to make Brexit look nice.

Horizontal empowering tool-sharing networks (as Hopeful noted) is what should rule. Then top-down governance could largely go away.

Posted by Peter Quennell on 06/26/16 at 10:00 AM | #

Hmmm. Need for a Plan B (if there is a Plan A)?

Inequality is starting to get attention in US media, as the UK has the most inequality and least regressive taxation of any country in Europe

The very rich in the UK hornswoggling everybody else. No wonder average people have a beef, but it was not the EC that forced upon them this:

Posted by Peter Quennell on 06/26/16 at 06:31 PM | #

Just heard, among the growing headshaking here, in reponse to a claim that “we Brits will not be told what to do”:

“You vill give your money to the rich. You vill give your money to the rich. You vill give your money to the rich. And blame the EU… “

Posted by Peter Quennell on 06/26/16 at 06:52 PM | #

If you go to Facebook and type in ‘Yes Minister’ The British sitcom.  There is a full explanation of how the EC works. I know this show is perhaps 30 years old but it is still relevant and the explanation is very profound.

Posted by Grahame Rhodes on 06/26/16 at 07:12 PM | #

We don’t like being told what to think…
Not, ‘we don’t like being told what to do’.
There’s a difference.

Regarding the older, allegedly more ‘narrow minded’ generation - there are substantial grounds for seeing the opposite to be true : the younger generation, inexperienced, and in some cases ill acquainted with constitutional issues, could be said to be speaking in a reactionary manner - while the baby boomers are still thinking in an unconformist and open-minded manner, as has been their habit, and are in fact seeing things from a very long perspective, bearing many lessons from history in mind, and not the immediate affects on their personal situations ( which incidentally they would also suffer from - reduced pensions, increased travel costs, etc etc).

One difference between the generations I do find regrettable is that we oldies were brought up to respect our elders, and credit them with their experience. We were also taught to appreciate difference, and agree to disagree with courtesy.
Not so many confident youngsters of today, - although by no means all - generalisations on both sides need to be avoided.

Posted by SeekingUnderstanding on 06/26/16 at 09:18 PM | #

How can financial turmoil be good for the UK and the rest of the world?

The Prime Minister has resigned, the two main political parties are in complete and utter disarray, the UK could be dissolved and we’re facing a self-inflicted recession. To make matters worse, there has been a wave of racial abuse and hate crime reported after the EU referendum.

Posted by The Machine on 06/27/16 at 01:12 AM | #

@the machine, I find it shocking that those on the side of remaining in the EU are such bad losers!  You had the vote and you lost, simple fact.  All of the knee jerk reactions, the threats and the tantrums are not going to change the fact that we all had a vote and the majority want out!

The country has survived much worse than sore losers trying to dream up some way to alter the conclusion, and a petition signed by thousands of people outside this country, and by the same people repeatedly, is nothing but an embarrassment.  Cheating is never a good way to go!

In the same way that our financial markets recovered on the day of the vote coming in people and companies will adapt and carry on.  Norway and Switzerland don’t seem to be suffering do they? Norway is the richest country in Europe and they were never foolish enough to hand the reins of their country over to people who are determined to thrash the individuality out of Europe! 

Here is an example of EU lunacy: they paid heavens knows how much for a report that concluded that water did not stop de-hydration!!!  An example of money spent by the EU obscenely, a shopping centre only open to EU staff with fat discounts so that they can spend our money on themselves with ease. 

This scaremongering is pathetic.

Posted by MHILL4 on 06/27/16 at 06:57 AM | #

I dont much like either the EC arrangement or the arrangement Brexit might be headed toward given the available ideologies.

Those are not the only choices. Lemme try to show what is the problem.

There’s a very powerful managerial device called the S-curve. I’ll post 2 images below. It shows how new innovations (not necc hitech) get adopted; and one day, finally, go the way of the horse & buggy. There are essentially two phases.

(1) Almost all high value is created in the early days when people spend freely and enterprise stocks rocket up. Think I-Phone. Unregulated contexts matter a lot here. Floating currencies help also. A lot of this is small new companies.

(2) Near the top value fades out - but governments and enterprises spend zillions to keep squeezing out every large ounce of value; that in fact is highly cost-ineffective and starves phase (1) where high value makes its breakthroughs. Think most industries.

The US and East & Southern Asia are much more conducive to (1) than the EC as currently designed is. Theres your problem.

The EC with its single currency and its “harmonization” and political pressures to hang onto every possible job is much more tilted toward helping (2) but that makes life pretty difficult for (1).

The UK could have spent its years inside pushing the EC toward (1) and at the same time doing it itself - but the shocking inequality inside the UK (my previous comment) suggests some unhelpful ideology was taking prevalence. Good workers need to be highly paid, not ripped off.

Suggestion? Map your systems, guys. Measure your value creation both geographically and according to industry. Create myriad working groups to vision 5-7 years out. Then set systems change rolling to make phase (1) dominant and phase (2) small and unimportant.

People inside these processes tend to LOVE them. And anybody can be inside them. Whole populations.



Posted by Peter Quennell on 06/27/16 at 08:12 AM | #

Hi SeekingUnderstanding

Nice spin there! You’re saying its fine the older people wrecking their own creation with no thought-through alternative? I wouldnt bet on that yet. Perhaps bear in mind:

(1) UK wealth destroyed by the market since last Thursday is equivalent to all the money the UK paid to the EC in the past 15 years.

(2) Taxes of young people are paying for pensions and services of old people. The last thing we need to see is a braindrain - and it already seems in motion.

Posted by Peter Quennell on 06/27/16 at 08:43 AM | #


Interesting comment. Amended response: The Swiss economy has not been growing so well lately:

Norway has a growth edge because of its North Sea oil - and it still pays almost the full fees to the EC. And both those countries allow full movement of people.

The Brexit referendum is being interpreted as a strong No to the free movement of people. So British prospects for more than breadcrumbs from the EC seem bleak.

Its a really bad time to go looking anywhere for trade deals with jobs disappearing and imports and migrants being blamed. And maybe now rich people.

Posted by Peter Quennell on 06/27/16 at 08:49 AM | #

Hi Peter,  Richard Coudenhove Kalergi is the spiritual father of the European Union.  He served as the founding president of the Pan-European Union for 49 years.  To this day, the EU give out an award in his name.

Kalergi revealed the true intentions of the EU in hs book ’ Practical Idealism’ where he claims that the EU will, against the will of the people of Europe, be disappeared through the creation of a ” Eurasian-Negroid race of the future”.  In other words, this rich elitist is saying that he will create a United States of Europe through forced miscegenation, a form of genocide.  This sick person is praised by many working for the EU and he is a hero to them!

We need no part of any organisation with these beliefs at their core; an evil man and an evil union.  This world is wonderful for the differences between countries and the desire to subjugate them into one bland mass is disgusting!  It opposes multi-culturism!  England’s relationship with the EU is short in comparison to our long history and we have nothing to fear given our strengths!

Posted by MHILL4 on 06/27/16 at 07:20 PM | #

I would not dream of spinning, nor approaching thoughtlessly such a serious subject of such import.

Please forgive if the following is unnecessary here to many readers, or OT, but I have been surprised at just how many people are unaware of the constitutional issues at stake, and also the range of powers given to the EU :

The Treaty of Lisbon, signed 13 December 2007, altered and amended the constitutional basis for the European Union. New powers, and new legal status were given to the EU, similarly to the original document, the European Constitution.

There is a requirement that the people be consulted via a referendum over fundamental constitutional issues, (see below, from the Publication from the Constitution Committee in the House of Lords, parliament uk) :

‘CHAPTER 3: Referendums on constitutional issues

65.  Many were of the view that if referendums were used, they should be used in relation to constitutional issues, in particular those of a fundamental nature. Caroline Morris stated that “referendums should be held only on fundamental constitutional issues” because “any alteration to the democratic fundamentals of a state should have the endorsement of its people” (pp 127-9). Peter Browning asserted that “major constitutional issues ... would seem to be the most obvious subjects for referendums. If the structure and rules of politics are to be changed, then the people rather than the political players should decide on those changes” (p 113). Professor Tierney argued that referendums should only be held in relation to “fundamental constitutional change” and “the highest issues of constitutional principle”, where “the issues are so fundamental that people should be able to reclaim their direct constitutional authority” (Q 74, p 49). Dr O’Malley suggested that “major constitutional changes ... should require the assent of the people ... this would give democratic weight and some permanence to such a decision” (p 130).

We do not believe that it is possible to provide a precise definition of what constitutes a “fundamental constitutional issue”. Nonetheless, we would consider to fall within this definition any proposals:

·  To abolish the Monarchy;

·  To leave the European Union;

·  For any of the nations of the UK to secede from the Union;

·  To abolish either House of Parliament;

·  To change the electoral system for the House of Commons;

·  To adopt a written constitution; and

·  To change the UK’s system of currency.’

After many years of delay and procrastination, a referendum was finally held in the UK,in June 2016, to ask the sovereign British people, whether they wished to accept the EU as it is now, with its constitution that is very different from the first agreement and referendum, made in 1975, regarding the original Common Market and membership of the EEC.

The result was a clear, - although not large, - majority for rejection.

The British people, their Parliament, and their Government now have the onerous task of delivering a withdrawal from the EU, trying their utmost to do so to everyone concerned’s mutual agreement.

Posted by SeekingUnderstanding on 06/27/16 at 07:33 PM | #

Rejection of what? I think I can help you here.

Referendums are really blunt instruments used most often by dictators which undermine REPRESENTATIVE democracy. I hope they dont become the fashion.

We cant make too much out of the Brexit outcome but we CAN conclude that peddle-to-the-floor globalization where governments back off their protective and educational functions is seriously hurting way too many.

On US TV today (we have 7 news and business channels largely wall-to-wall Brexit) there were finally some interviews with pro-Brexit voters who explained their plights without demonizing Poles etc etc etc.

Globalization was a deliberate policy from the 90s by many governments, most corporations, and the world bodies, especially the IMF and World Bank.

The simplistic economist-driven peddle-to-the-floor approach was in face of years of slow growth - and of the East Asia miracle, where Japan, Singapore, China etc seemed headed to eat everyone else’s lunch.

It also has hints of a Thatcherite view that the working classes are lazy. Big stick and little carrot.

What I hint at in other comments above is the alternative, actually like the East Asia model (which used few economists and no IMF or World Bank), far more intelligent and participatory than open-the-floodgates globalization.

It is very much proven at US corporate level. You can see it in spades at work in Google, which makes its staff feel super-special and has them all working on (surprise surprise!) better systems. No shock treatement. Nothing brutal.

The point of it is not to slow down growth (which anyway has been lousy!!) but to give EVERYONE some tools to help them to handle it. 

Here is a good article on Brexit and globalization which does a good job historically though it ignores the East Asia part. .

Posted by Peter Quennell on 06/27/16 at 08:23 PM | #

Nigel Farage and Boris Johnson’s dream of a utopian future without the EU has instantly turned into a disturbing nightmare. The UK has lost its AAA credit rating, there will be tax increases and job losses. The ripples of Bexit are already being felt around the world. 3$ trillion was lost in two days.

Once the UK has left the EU, there will be no more tariff-free trade with the other 27 EU members and freedom of movement in Europe.

Whatever fleeting pleasure people felt at sticking two fingers up at Brusseis and/or “getting our country back” will soon vanish as reality bites.

Getting swept away by waves of patriotism and nationalism always has serious negative consequences. Look at what happened in Germany in the 1930s when the Nazis whipped up national fervour to fever pitch. There has been a 57% increase in reported hate crimes since the EU referendum.

Posted by The Machine on 06/28/16 at 06:54 AM | #


Jean Monet is the father of functionalism and thus of the EC. In all my visits to the European countries (all of them) for the UN program I had, I heard Monet mentioned many times; Kalergi not even once. Theres a lot more idealism elsewhere than you might have encountered in the sometimes cynical UK - though the UN is generally admired more. The UN is very horizontal of course, and it helps empowerment of people through practical knowledge above all. Its not top-down.

Posted by Peter Quennell on 06/28/16 at 07:45 AM | #

Hi The Machine

Yeah we are hearing all of that and nothing yet from “the other side”. Where was Boris yesterday? Where is the plan? How long will the heady joy last? Above all will the UK act to narrow the gigantic gap between rich and everyone else which seems the primary driver here? It could be done in one stroke, by changing the tax code. Many millions would immediately see relief and feel they are sharing in growth - as for purely British political reasons they have not been up to now. Oh and move on horizontal arrangements in which everyone can feel they matter too.

Posted by Peter Quennell on 06/28/16 at 07:53 AM | #

The comparisons to Germany in the 1930s are ridiculous.

The establishment and media were against the Brexit vote from the start, hence the predictable over reaction since. Doom and gloom forecasts, so called “hate crimes” increases (which often amount to no more than name calling in this politically correct joke of a country that the UK has become) etc etc.

Things will settle down when the leadership at the top of the Tory party has been ousted and replaced with people who are pro freedom and sensible immigration. People who will negotiate hard with Brussels and not end up with some fudge that leaves us having to accept the free movement of people.

Try peddling the EU prosperity and better together myth in the Southern European member states who have had EU sponsored penury imposed on them. Mass unemployment, especially amongst the youth, has meant that freedom of movement means people desert their homelands in droves. Naturally, they want to go where the work is and the UK created more jobs than the rest of the EU combined so no surprise we become the destination of choice.

Unscrupulous corporations exploit this and the result is the main rump of people that we get are low skilled, high state dependency types which causes downward pressure on wages and upward pressure on services. It was an utterly unsustainable model.

I’ve been in many areas of Glasgow which have become ghettos and where English is a foreign language. This isn’t a Daily Mail story, I’ve seen it with my own eyes and such experiences have been happening to countless others throughout the UK.

The EU has been nothing but a vehicle by which the rest of Europe learns to live with German domination of the continent once again. That in itself is an entirely sensible standpoint to take. Germany has given up nuclear weapons and is no longer a military threat to anyone. It is a economic powerhouse however and the fact that the UK has chosen to free itself from the yoke of financial and regulatory oppression makes me rather proud in truth.

Let’s review things in a year or so. My prediction is the UK will not be in recession and more countries within the EU will begin to see recovering your national sovereignty needn’t be the disaster that the establishment clearly hopes it will be. The much vaunted “markets” will have found their level and indeed they will be salivating at the prospect of a more nimble UK, able to strike its own trade deals with the likes of China, India and USA. It might be bumpy along the way but what price freedom? Our national Stockholm syndrome relationship with the EU has been broken. Let’s not try putting humpty back together again.

A note of caution however. There is clearly an attempt going on to water down or even reverse this historic decision. Should these unscrupulous efforts meet with success or even the perception of success, there will be a furious reaction from the population. Mark my words,

Posted by davidmulhern on 06/28/16 at 08:03 AM | #

Hi davidmulhern

Yeah given the situation I for one would take things exactly that way.

Plus modern growth knowhow, the EC brand was superceded when the Asian tigers broke though and even the pesky IMF and World Bank learned something then. Why not the EU? It is 25 years behind the times.

We plan to start something more modern rolling in Glasgow, right?! Book a hall.

Posted by Peter Quennell on 06/28/16 at 08:13 AM | #

Hi Pete,

Boris Johnson has spoken to the media, but Michael Gove has been conspicuous by his absence. Johnson seems oblivious to the financial and political turmoil that has ensued since the referendum. David Cameron doesn’t want to be involved in negotiating the UK’s exit from the EU and a new leader of the Conservative Party won’t be elected until the autumn. We’ve sailed into a storm with no-one at the helm.

Posted by The Machine on 06/28/16 at 08:26 AM | #

Hi The Machine

Yes we sure have learned a lot of new names! All news channels carried some of Parliament yesterday.

Sorry about Iceland by the way. Have those Icelandics no shame?!

Posted by Peter Quennell on 06/28/16 at 08:38 AM | #

Perhaps I should have given a more recent example of patriotism clouding people’s judgement and making them stupid e.g. drunken English fans rioting in France.

Posted by The Machine on 06/28/16 at 08:51 AM | #

Hi Pete

Glasgow, like the rest of Scotland, voted to remain. Just as it voted for independence during the referendum. As much as I love the city of my birth, I’m afraid it’s a hotbed of socialist sentiment. Only in the leafier suburbs, is civilised debate even possible.

Our treatment of Nigel Farage in Scotland is a lasting stain on our small nation’s character. We seem incapable of accepting and debating with people of opposing views and the man was virtually run out of Dodge on the odd occasions he has come here as the braying idiots refused to listen to him or let anyone else listen to him. Properly hateful stuff.

Anyway, there’s a great clip on the BBC News website today around six minutes long of Farage’s speech in the European Parliament. It is excellent.

Had we lost this vote, I would have accepted the result and moved on. Indeed, you’ll know from previous posts of mine that I fully expected to lose it. This is a common sentiment from those on my side of the argument.

The incoherent and childish reaction of the remainers tells you all you need to know about what they actually think of democracy. It’s as nothing to them provided they have a government (or a supranational behemoth like the EU) which thinks for them, wipes their nose for them and provides ever more meaningless state jobs to capture their votes ad infinitum.

We live in interesting times my friend. I’m quite excited by that and embrace the changes to come, good and bad. This is how we evolve.

Posted by davidmulhern on 06/28/16 at 10:52 AM | #

The population of the UK is 64 million. 17 million voted to leave the European Union. According to a recent opinion poll, one million people regret their vote to leave the EU:

Posted by The Machine on 06/28/16 at 12:18 PM | #

Okay. If the UK was part of the Euro zone, we over here could maybe understand.

But it isnt, and the Brexit outcome is looking more and more like a hornswoggle - a giant bait & switch con.

By, in part, a government with something huge to hide which “Leave” ignored or read wrong.

See these three indicators of appalling economic management, none caused by the EC - Brexit will not fix any of these.

(1) This:  Gap between rich and poor growing fastest in Britain

(2) This: the British pound tanking fast (two-year chart).


(3) This: the trade gap deeply negative year after year (three-year chart).


Posted by Peter Quennell on 06/28/16 at 02:50 PM | #

(4) See the red curve in (4) below. UK stocks tanked 30% in 2 years - the black curve is the US S&P.

Seems SOMEONE was awake!! Even as Boris & Nigel & the hapless Corbyn and the British public were being “stitched up” - fooled into holding the bag as Cameron & Osborne grin and move on.

(5) The pound against the dollar followed the exact-same same downward curve.

Lotta bad news. The EC played no part. Dont come over here guys, - someone might sell you the Brooklyn bridge, ha ha ha!


Posted by Peter Quennell on 06/28/16 at 03:43 PM | #

Multi millionaire Bob Geldof sticking his finger up at fishermen demonstrating their discontent at the EU on the Thames must have been responsible for a few thousand Brexit votes. He was parading his caring credentials with a few chosen cronies from the metropolitan elite whilst taking a break from lucrative lecture deals on world poverty.

Posted by pensky on 06/28/16 at 05:00 PM | #

Has anyone clocked the off the scale narcissism emanating from AK’s new photoshoot? See Facebook.  I would love to hear Hopeful’s insightful assessment of the symbolism of the different set ups she collaborated on.  Beneath the embarrassing pretentiousness there is more evidence of AK’s refusal to let this crime be. (Let It Be indeed). She doesn’t want to be forgotten much less be disassociated from the murder. Her new guise as tortured martyr must be excruciating for MK’s family.

Posted by pensky on 06/28/16 at 05:08 PM | #

Hi pensky

Re Bob Geldof, anything that gets average Brits over their Downtown Abbey syndrome and seeing that the plutocracy is NOT their friend is fine with me!

That should be the next big wave - do you see any appropriate leaders yet? Tip: inclusive growth will not ever be achieved by the Parties, it needs to start bottom-up and go right past.

No toffs.

Posted by Peter Quennell on 06/28/16 at 05:51 PM | #

So… Marriott has a successor?

From KnoxCentral: “For media requests, please contact Ana Reyes at .(JavaScript must be enabled to view this email address).”

Guess it’s a step up, an actual lawyer compared to a PR guy.

Posted by Chimera on 06/28/16 at 06:48 PM | #

If only the Leave vote was Wat Tyler’s Peasants Revolt Mark II.

Alas, the Leave campaign was led by The Sun and the Daily Mail newspapers, that’s why people felt confident in voting Leave.

Only problem is, The Sun is owned by Rupert Murdoch who lives in Australia and the ‘patriotic’ Daily Mail owner has registered himself as a ‘Non-Domicile’, to avoid UK tax, and lives in France.

As The Machine accurately states, the EU referendum vote is a disaster and Article 50 hasn’t even been triggered yet.

Boris Johnson said on tv yesterday, “The pound is stable, the pensions are stable and the markets are stable”.  The common connection?  Stable = horseshit!

There was no strategy, no plan, no constructive programme on how the UK would exit the EU.  Just empty rhetoric and now they are aleady denying they said £352bn per week will now go to the NHS instead.

MEP Nigel Farage stood up in front of the EU parliament today like a heckling schoolboy, to say, “You laughed when I said I’d take the UK out of the EU seventeen years ago.  Who’s laughing now?”

And, “Many of you have never had a proper job in your life!”

A very mature and responsible way to run ‘our country’?  Resoundingly no!

Posted by Slow Jane on 06/28/16 at 08:04 PM | #

Hi Slow Jane

Quote: “Boris Johnson said on tv yesterday, “The pound is stable, the pensions are stable and the markets are stable”.  The common connection?  Stable = horseshit!”

Right-on. Actually markets are more stable simply and only because there was a huge worldwide realization yesterday - a tipping point - that the UK simply doesnt matter very much (reflected in dozens of comments on US business channels) and EC stability had been their real worry.

As you say the Sun and Daily Mail are owned and run by plutocrats whose real motives are hidden behind seven veils. The EC countries other then Britain are waking up to the need for inclusiveness if growth is to go up by 2X.

Had Boris etc actually planned or gamed this thing out, they would have spotted the same negative indicators I did (yes, David Cameron, your economic policies ARE at the core of British frustration) and not blamed immigrants instead of biased economic management.

The EC now has a real opportunity to complete its federal structures and promote inclusive faster growth across Europe.

Whither Britain? Given the trends in those charts above I’ve moved toward pretty pessimistic. Brexit is not the way to reverse them. Wrong answer to wrong problem.

Posted by Peter Quennell on 06/29/16 at 08:25 AM | #

Hi Chimera

We aint done with Knox. Huge whacks in part based on all your hard work coming down the pike.

But here we are in a way fighting a proxy battle for the Merediths.

Meredith was a UK citizen of mixed-race, the ones now getting screamed at.

Her attitude was very internationalist and she could have walked right in to the UN and had talked of working in Brussels.

She wanted inclusiveness and fairness and already created them all around her.

And she had just the right mix of study subjects and languages to talk hard sense at the heart of things.

Posted by Peter Quennell on 06/29/16 at 08:49 AM | #

Adnan Syed Of ‘Serial’ Podcast Given Retrial

Will innocence fraud lead to another killer getting away with murder?

Posted by The Machine on 07/01/16 at 02:10 AM | #

Hi Machine

Great catch on Adnan Syed. If you care to put together a main post that would be great, otherwise I will try to do something. We should definitely follow this one.

Yes there are strong parallels to our case, not least his PR campaign. The little I read on the case suggests his guilt is overwhelming. Its a lot harder to get a reversal here than in Italy though, as Avery the Netflix guy is finding.

Posted by Peter Quennell on 07/01/16 at 08:44 AM | #

@Grahame Rhodes: “Yes, Prime Minister” is a laugh a minute. My children used to check it out of local library, they introduced me to it. We all laughed at the British wit, adorable. And heard much talk of “Trident” and jokes about Minister of Health being a coughing chainsmoker. Watched them over and over, and learned a bit about British government the easy way: through humor.

@Pensky: I haven’t seen Knox’s new photos but thank you for confidence in my opinion. I’ll check them out. No doubt your take on them is already correct: more Knox linking herself to the crime of her lifetime, addicted to infamy.

With Brexit headlines and world news one calamity after another this year 2016, I wonder if Knox had good or bad timing with her trial?

If she were on trial right now would she garner half as many headlines? She might have been hardpressed to get time on U.S. talk shows with today’s world shattering issues reducing her to the shadows. Just wonder.

Brexit news is saturating the media and the globe. I don’t understand the politics of it very well, but I urge everyone whether Leave or Stronger Together to take heart and find peace. At risk of repeating myself, I lean on the promise of God, “I’ve never seen the righteous forsaken nor his seed begging for bread.” And, “When the enemy comes in like a flood, the Lord (Adonai) will raise up a standard against him.” Isaiah.

My mentor when I was a young person married with children and intensely struggling, Brother Heflin changed my life. He spoke the word to sow a seed out of our need and trust for a positive outcome. His sister grew up in China and spoke Mandarin. She later started a church in Jerusalem. He ministered to the nations. Heflin claimed every nation for Christ wherever Heflin could place his foot. God rules every man, he’s prudent, just, and kind. His mercies are over all his works. The people of the British Isles are in His protective hand. Money is no problem for him. I entered China in 1990 with $25.00 in my pocket and faith alone on a mission with others. Brokest I ever was, but I accomplished more.

Posted by Hopeful on 07/01/16 at 03:47 PM | #

Hi Hopeful,

There has been a five-fold increase in reported hate crimes and racial abuse in the UK since the EU referendum:

Posted by The Machine on 07/02/16 at 04:18 AM | #

The Terminator movies of Arnold Schwarznegger and many others are about humanity v machines - about humanity v pesky systems gone wrong, fallen short, turned against us.

Not that they “mean” to though many movies make them pretty malevolent. Maybe cancerous is the best way to think about them.

Here is the pesky system-gone-haywire du jour, caught in the act!

The 121 opinion polls that took place prior to the Brexit vote which, done properly, would have shown the British public was a lot more ticked off about various pressures than the generally anti-Brexit parliament was realising.


We saw similar delusions in the US in 2012 when manual changes were made to Republican Party polls to “un-skew” them.

Those changes were in the wrong direction. The systems did work then, the second guessing didnt, and helped to cost Romney the election. 

(1) Why Romney would win comfortably over Obama:

(2) Oops! Why he didnt.

And here of course is why Donald Trump would not become the Republican frontrunner…

Yeah, right.

Posted by Peter Quennell on 07/06/16 at 12:49 PM | #

Lots of plaintiff talk by Tony Blair about how, well, everybody forgot about the “nation building” part of the wonderful Iraq adventure - and so nobody was ready - and anyway the American approach which dominated as the British were not even in Baghdad (can you believe this stuff?!) went seriously sideways.

More truthfully, it never stood the slightest chance.  Not with those clowns in their clown-cars.  What neither Tony Blair nor Chilcot said is that no single country has a good record of nation building for any other.

Nation building is a wildly inefficient earlier version (along with “capacity building” and “institution building” and “state building”) of the putting into place of thousands of purposeful systems (which the EC failed at - hence Brexit).

American aid tends to use academics for this, and none simply get on with the team-building and systems. They see themselves as “experts” and presume if others watch them long enough something will rub off that is useful. American experts only know American systems; the UK expert mainly knows British systems; neither know what can work in Arab situations.

Almost none of of them speak Arabic. A vast and impatient military presence hardly helps. What is left behind is nothing but mass befuddlement.

The UN which is somewhat more competent essentially was not interested, as this was an illegal war not mandated by the Security Council which was set in motion by Bush & Blair almost over the dead bodies of Hans Blix and the UN’s other atomic experts. Highly worth reading:

Bush & Blair broke it. So they will always own it.

Posted by Peter Quennell on 07/06/16 at 08:58 PM | #

Ah! Speaking of Hans Blix I see he already has an opinion about Chilcot online.

I share the dominant view among international lawyers that the war was in breach of the UN charter. It was not launched by the US and UK in self-defence against Iraqi aggression, and it was not authorised by the security council. Saddam was a brutal dictator, but in 2003 he was a threat to no one but his own people, and Iraq was prostrate after more than a decade of international sanctions. Three permanent members of the security council – China, France and Russia – explicitly opposed the action, and hundreds of thousands of people in the streets of New York, London and other cities demonstrated against it.

Posted by Peter Quennell on 07/06/16 at 09:20 PM | #

“Austerity, not immigration, to blame for inequality underlying Brexit vote, argues Oxford professor”

The true cause of Brexit, I suggested above. Fix that and much else will come right.

That is a common view over here, where inequality has been a front burner issue since the massive “supply side” tax cuts of George Bush and hands off approach nearly thanked the global economy in 2008-2009 and put us $20 trillion in debt. Read 100 articles by Paul Krugman on this.

Not that I hold economic policy makers with their silly magic levers in any great esteem, but at least they studied something relevant, unlike the British minister of finance George Osborne who apparently only took math to Grade 10.

He and Cameron seem to favor the now-irrelevant Thatcherism-lite (as apparently did “left wing” PM Tony Blair). Poor Brits. Food-parcels are on their way.

Posted by Peter Quennell on 07/08/16 at 10:31 PM | #

Theresa May is just announced as the new British PM. She seems diligent and low-key and apparently compassionate - lets see if she junks the austerity “cure” for slow growth.

The UK COULD possibly make it big on its own - but with THAT appallingly stupid philosophy and THAT cannibalistic media, I aint holding my breath!

Posted by Peter Quennell on 07/11/16 at 09:25 AM | #

Heh heh, I am sneaking in one more comment on growth (this matters to Italy too); this time it was one just posted in response to this article by Paul Krugman in today’s NY Times.

Nice what Paul proposes (again!) but he and his profession need to figure out how to make economies do step-function jumps, assuming one leaves economists “in charge” of growth on which the verdict is not yet in. The last best example of s step-function jump was the East Asian tigers in the 1990s where they created purposeful systems en masse using Japan as their learning example - which used the US as its example before that - all of which shocked the IMF & World Bank (see The East Asia Miracle) who had been way too fixated on the Washington Consensus and the cold bath/austerity/supply-side approach (the real cause of Brexit now).

“Modern” economies worldwide are becoming more and more bogged down in archaic systems that are holding them back, when really they need to start afresh. Big money (governments and billionaires) should be investing vastly more near the bottom of the S curve, creating millions of new systems to in turn create high value; and investing vastly less near the top of the S curve, where bang for the buck these days is down around the floor. Google & Microsoft are giant systems for themselves creating systems with market caps headed for $1 trillion but their most adopted “breakthrough” globally came when they were very small.

Posted by Peter Quennell on 07/11/16 at 11:15 AM | #

The UK’s real opportunity is not in exhausting itself negotiating to be another Norway - some trade, some free flow of people, and no say at the top table.

The UK’s real opportunity is to place itself at the center of a global network for proper growth.

How this would best begin is via internal networking in the UK at thinktank/university/corporate level.

Meanwhile, send all the meddlesome politicians (especially the ridiculous George Osborne) off to a desert island for two years.

I dont see even one I revere.

Posted by Peter Quennell on 07/11/16 at 11:26 AM | #

Well said indeed Pete.

The lunatics have indeed taken over the asylum so I fear a wonderful opportunity may be squandered. I am less hopeful than I was immediately after the historic Brexit vote but then British politics has been in unprecedented turmoil since 24 June.

That said, my expectation levels are currently very low so perhaps I need to see what Mrs May does and who she appoints to her new cabinet before I start shouting about it. She may just surprise us all.

Posted by davidmulhern on 07/12/16 at 08:26 PM | #

Hi davidmulhern

Surprise indeed. Amazingly, the new PM Theresa May seems to agree with us! Take a look at what is highlighted below.

It is a real whack at the dismal results of wrong-headed growth policy already highlighted in the charts above which has made 1/2 the UK population so mad.

“David’s true legacy” is he bombed. In this speech the “real villain” the Economic Union is nowhere in sight.

British Prime Minister Theresa May delivers her first speech (AP):

  I have just been to Buckingham Palace where Her Majesty the Queen has asked me to form a new government, and I accepted.

  In David Cameron, I follow in the footsteps of a great, modern prime minister. Under David’s leadership, the government stabilized the economy, reduced the budget deficit, and helped more people into work than ever before.

  But David’s true legacy is not about the economy, but about social justice. From the introduction of same-sex marriage, to taking people on low wages out of income tax altogether.

  David Cameron has led a one nation government and it is in that spirit that I also plan to lead. Because not everybody knows this, but the full title of my party is the Conservative and Unionist Party. And that word Unionist is very important to me. It means we believe in the Union. That precious, precious bond between England, Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland.

  But it means something else that is just as important. It means that we believe in a Union not just of the nations of the United Kingdom, but between all of our citizens. Every one of us, whoever we are and wherever we are from.

  That means fighting against the burning injustice that if you are born poor, you will die on average 9 years earlier than others. If you’re black, you’re treated more harshly by the criminal justice system than if you are white. If you’re a white, working-class boy, you’re less likely than anyone else in Britain to go to university. If you’re at a state school, you’re less likely to reach the top professions than if you were educated privately.

  If you are a woman, you will earn less than a man. If you suffer from mental health problems, there’s not enough help to hand. If you’re young, you’ll find it harder than ever before to own your own home.

  But the mission to make Britain a country that works for everyone means more than just fighting these injustices.

  If you’re from an ordinary working-class family, life is much harder than many people in Westminster realize. You have the job but you don’t always have the job security. You have your own home but you worry about paying the mortgage. You can just about manage, but you worry about the cost of living and getting your kids into a good school.

  If you’re one of those families. If you’re just managing. I want to address you directly. I know you’re working around the clock, I know you’re doing your best and I know that sometimes, life can be a struggle. The government I lead will be driven not by the interests of a privileged few, but by yours.

  We will do everything we can to give you more control over your lives. When we take the big calls, we’ll think not of the powerful but you. When we pass new laws, we’ll listen not to the mighty, but you. When it comes to taxes we’ll prioritize not the wealthy, but you. When it comes to opportunity, we won’t entrench the advantages of the fortunate few. We will do everything we can to help anybody, whatever your background, to go as far as your talents will take you.

  We are living through an important moment in our countries history. Following the referendum we face a time of great national change. And I know because we’re Great Britain, we will rise to the challenge.

  As we leave the European Union, we will forge a bold, new positive role for ourselves in the world. And we will make Britain a country that works not for a privileged few, but for every one of us.

  That will be the mission of the government I lead and together, we will build a better Britain.

Posted by Peter Quennell on 07/13/16 at 03:43 PM | #

Hi Pete

Mrs May certainly delivered a very good inaugural speech.

If positive actions follow these fine words and positive outcomes follow the actions, I will happily eat my words when I suggested she would be a disaster. I don’t see her going full term to 2020 before calling an election. I think circumstances will dictate that she will have to.

Appointing Boris Johnson as Foreign Secretary was, I thought, a joke when I read it. It will either be an inspired choice or a complete disaster. I tend to the latter but, again, time must be given to see how all of this pans out.

With the main opposition party in the UK being in utter turmoil, we live in interesting times indeed.

Time to batten down the hatches, stormy seas ahead methinks!

Posted by davidmulhern on 07/14/16 at 06:58 AM | #

Hi davidmulhern

Out of interest, do you have influential contacts in Scotland?

If so you might like to suggest to them that starting negotiations with the EC - getting back to half pregnant - is not actually Scotland’s best Job #1 (the same for England).

This is what we are now seeing. (For me the UK was something of a backwater, I havent worked there or invested there, and I know most of Europe better.)

Under modern concepts the EU is designed wrongly. It is pro harmonization above all and thus for both leveling up for the poorer countries and (unintentionally) leveling down for the richer countries.

All countries are bunching up on the same rung on the ladder.

This is silly. Modern growth management says pretty well the opposite needs to happen - and can happen. The Euro put this problem on steroids (though the problem is much bigger than the Euro and simply making it go away now would be a disaster).

Accordingly, these look like your choices. 

1) No ties to Europe and no alternative model could result in years of zero growth - trust me there is plenty of that in the world, see most Arab countries and Russia.

2) Renewed entangling ties with the EC might at best get England and Scotland back up to one and a half percent.

3) Putting to work the new growth MANAGEMENT tools (not ECONOMIC tools) with the UK networked with like partners could result in growth 2 to 3 times that.

In round figures that is annually about 100 billion Euros or pounds more than the “Norway option”. Not to be dismissed lightly.

I may try to publish something, and a new website is coming.

Posted by Peter Quennell on 07/14/16 at 05:28 PM | #

Hi Pete

I did previously have a number of influential business contacts in Scotland but I’ve been on a bit of a career break for the last five years (travelling the world mainly and generally enjoying life!) and in the previous ten years I worked all over England and Wales in the outsourcing sector and latterly what was for me a new sector completely; the climate change sector where I was Regional Managing Director for a consultancy firm who cleaned up nuclear sites (my ex employer cleaned up Xmas Island for instance), designed wind farms, designed energy from waste plants etc.

I haven’t kept track of what was happening in Scotland and could no longer claim to have current influential contacts.

I look forward to seeing the new website, you seem to have the bit between your teeth now!

Posted by davidmulhern on 07/14/16 at 06:15 PM | #

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